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Alphapoly: what it does, how the LLM is used, where it stops
Last checked 2026-09-08
Alphapoly is Chainstack's open-source alpha-detection platform for Polymarket. It groups markets, asks an LLM to extract logical implications between groups, validates those implications at the market level, then computes the cost and expected profit of a covering portfolio using live prices.
It trades against Polymarket V2 with pUSD collateral through per-user deposit wallets, and its README is the clearest public note that the V1 USDC.e stack was retired on 2026-04-28.
What it does
A five-step pipeline: groups (fetch markets such as a presidential winner set), implications (LLM extracts relationships), validation (LLM checks each at the market level), portfolios (cost and expected profit from live prices), and positions (tracks the pairs you bought). A dashboard on port 3000 lets you enter detected pairs and follow them.
The repo is set up for coding agents with a CLAUDE.md, hooks and six skills, including one that executes a covered pair and one that exits it.
- uv for Python, Node.js 18+ for the frontend; make install and make dev
- Trading through signature type 3 deposit wallets: an EOA signing key plus a Relayer API key; the relayer pays gas, so no POL is needed
- Bare EOAs cannot trade directly on the V2 CLOB allowlist per the README
- Experiments folder: wallet setup, USDC.e to pUSD wrap, on-chain OTC on an Anvil fork, sigtype-3 verification probe
Strategy
The edge is structural: if market A implies market B, then a portfolio across them that covers every outcome should not cost more than it pays. The LLM proposes the implications and validates them; the price math decides whether a pair is worth entering.
The README gives no performance numbers and carries an educational and research disclaimer.
Setup and requirements
An OpenRouter key for the LLM and an RPC node are called out as needed for a good experience. Trading needs a Relayer API key minted at polymarket.com/settings under API keys, an EOA signing key, and pUSD in the deposit wallet.
Activity and maintenance
177 stars and 38 forks as of 2026-09-08. Created 2026-01-07, last push 2026-08-05, 4 open issues. Apache-2.0, Python. Chainstack is an RPC infrastructure company and the README opens with its marketing banner.
Where it falls short
An implication the LLM gets wrong is a pair that does not cover. Validation is a second LLM pass, not a settlement-rule check. Related markets also resolve at different times, so a covering portfolio can be right and still tie up capital for months.
Polymarket only. The pipeline costs LLM tokens on every run.
Who should use it
A developer who wants a worked, current example of Polymarket V2 trading mechanics (deposit wallets, relayer, pUSD) and an LLM-assisted screen for related-market mispricing.
Not for anyone who wants the bot to trade unattended; the UI is built around you entering pairs.
Questions about Alphapoly (polymarket-alpha-bot)
Is Alphapoly free?
Apache-2.0 on GitHub. You pay OpenRouter for LLM calls and an RPC provider for the node.
Does Alphapoly trade automatically?
It detects covering pairs and offers a UI and agent skills to enter and exit them. The README describes a person entering positions, not an unattended loop.
Does Alphapoly work on Polymarket V2?
Yes. It trades with pUSD through deposit wallets and a Relayer API key; the V1 USDC.e path was retired on 2026-04-28 and is kept on a v1-final tag.
Does Alphapoly support Kalshi?
No. Polymarket only.
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